In this paper we test two hypotheses regarding magical thinking about the perceived likelihood of future events. The first is that people believe that those who ``tempt fate'' by failing to take necessary precautions are more likely to suffer negative outcomes. The second is the ``protection...

In 5 experiments we show that choices between bundles of consumption goods exhibit a preference for ‘order’ that cannot be explained on the basis of utility for consumption itself. The first 3 experiments show that this order-preference is strong and produces robust violations of normative...