This paper documents new evidence that survey forecasts of stock prices are not anchored by forecasts of economic fundamentals in US stock markets. This evidence is at odds with a wide range of asset pricing models with various information assumptions. The paper develops and estimates a stock...

Using survey forecast data, we study if professional forecasters utilize long-run co-integration relationships among macroeconomic variables to forecast future as postulated in workhorse stochastic growth models. There exists a significant heterogeneity among forecasters, the majority of whom do...

Standard rational expectations stock pricing models typically imply that agents use the long-run cointegration relation between stock price and fundamentals to forecast future stock prices. Do survey stock market forecasts support this implication? We find that survey stock price forecasts are...