We provide the first comprehensive analysis of option information for pricing the cross-section of stock returns by jointly examining extensive sets of firm and option characteristics. Using portfolio sorts and high-dimensional methods, we show that certain option measures have significant...

For the popular mean-variance portfolio choice problem in the case without a risk-free asset, we develop a new portfolio strategy to mitigate estimation risk. We show that in both calibrations and real datasets, optimally combining the sample global minimum variance portfolio with a sample...

In this paper, we document that an application of a moving average strategy of technical analysis to portfolios sorted by volatility generates investment timing portfolios that often outperform the buy-and-hold strategy substantially. For high volatility portfolios, the abnormal returns,...

While economic variables have been used extensively to forecast bond risk premia, little attention has been paid to technical indicators which are widely used by practitioners. In this paper, we study the predictive ability of a variety of technical indicators vis-a-vis the economic variables....

Academic research has extensively used macroeconomic variables to forecast the U.S. equity risk premium, with little attention paid to the technical indicators widely employed by practitioners. Our paper fills this gap by comparing the forecasting ability of technical indicators with that of...

Academic research relies extensively on macroeconomic variables to forecast the U.S. equity risk premium, with relatively little attention paid to the technical indicators widely employed by practitioners. Our paper fills this gap by comparing the forecasting ability of technical indicators with...

Stock market predictability is of considerable interest in both academic research and investment practice. Ross (2005) provides a simple and elegant upper bound on the predictive regression R-squared that R^2 = (1 R_f)^2 Var(m) for a given asset pricing model with kernel m, where R_f is the...

We construct a lottery factor that aggregates the information of 16 commonly used lottery features. The lottery factor significantly improves the explanatory power of the four-factor q model in Hou, Xue, and Zhang (2015) and explains all but a few major anomaly returns. In assessing the...

In this paper, we analyze the usefulness of technical analysis, specifically the widely used moving average trading rule, from an asset allocation perspective. We show that when stock returns are predictable, technical analysis adds value to commonly used allocation rules that invest fixed...

The unconditional mean-variance efficiency of the Morgan Stanley Capital International world equity index is investigated. Using data from 16 OECD countries and Hong Kong and maintaining the assumption of multivariate normality, we cannot reject the efficiency of the benchmark. However, residual...