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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013186424
periodicity which provides a good potential for fine-tuned prediction from month to month. A monthly monitoring using a model that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011064123
Using a methodology developed in previous papers, we analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as a whole, in the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West of the USA, in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia of the USA, to determine whether they have grown...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010588672
We present a general methodology to incorporate fundamental economic factors to the theory of herding developed in our group to describe bubbles and antibubbles. We start from the strong form of rational expectation and derive the general method to incorporate factors in addition to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010589255
We present an analysis of oil prices in USD and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up was amplified by speculative behavior of the type found during a bubble-like expansion. We also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010589949
. We present a partial assessment of this prediction at the time of revision of this manuscript (early January 2004 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010873440
prediction for the unknown future of the US S&P500 index extending over 2003 and 2004, that refines the previous prediction of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011058501
investors leading to a competition between positive and negative feedbacks in the pricing process. A monthly prediction for the … future evolution of the US S&P 500 index has been issued, monitored and updated in (http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/index.asp#prediction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011059088