This paper presents a dynamic model of optimal currency returns with a hidden Markov regime switching process. We postulate a weak form of interest rate parity that the hedged risk premiums on currency investments are identical within each regime across all currencies. Both the in-sample and the...

We provide a historical perspective focusing on Ziemba's experiences and research on the bond-stock earnings yield differential model (BSEYD) starting from when he first used it in Japan in 1988 through to the present in 2014. The model has called many but not all crashes. Those called have high...

Stochastic processes is one of the key operations research tools for analysis of complex phenomenon. This paper has a unique application to the study of mean changing models in stock markets. The idea is to enter and exit stock markets like Apple Computer and the broad S&P500 index at good times...

This paper categorizes investors into five groups. They are: efficient markets, risk premium, genius superior traders, rejectors of efficient market theory and those who use research to make superior risk adjusted returns. Successful investment involves estimation and optimization and these are...

This paper reviews contributions to portfolio theory and practice by William T. Ziemba and his colleagues. The paper covers static and dynamic portfolio and capital growth theory along with real applications to asset and asset-liability management and various types of trading and prediction and...

It is widely believed that the 1/n portfolio provides a good ex-post performance. Several studies have compared the 1/n portfolio with respect to a set of optimal mean-variance policies to prove or disprove the superiority of the 1/n portfolio. However, this approach is not likely to yield a...

The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Strategy (KCGIS) is to maximize the expected utility of nal wealth with a logarithmic utility function. This approach dates to Bernoulli's 1738 suggestion of log as the utility function arguing that marginal utility was proportional to the reciprocal of...

We study the land and stock markets in Japan circa 1990 and in 2013. While the Nikkei stock average in the late 1980s and its -48% crash in 1990 is generally recognized as a financial market bubble, a bigger bubble and crash was in the land market. The crash in the Nikkei which started on the...

This paper examines the predictive ability of the spread between the yield on long-term government bonds and the earnings yield of the overall stock market in the US, Germany, Canada, the UK and Japan for the period from 1970 to 1999. The results show that there is a relationship between this...

Warren Buffett suggested that the ratio of the market value of all publicly traded stocks to the Gross National Product could identify potential overvaluations and undervaluations in the US equity market. We investigate whether this ratio is a statistically significant predictor of equity market...