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Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...
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the degree of assimilation in Germany, which is consistent with a switch of migrants' reference point from home countries …
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nonlinearity in the data, and the importance of cointegration theory. An essential part of the papers make use of parametric and …
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