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Nowcasting has been a challenge in the recent economic crisis. We introduce the Toll Index, a new monthly indicator for business cycle forecasting and demonstrate its relevance using German data. The index measures the monthly transportation activity performed by heavy transport vehicles across...
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Die große Wirtschaftskrise hat bisher nur verhaltene Spuren am Arbeitsmarkt hinterlassen. Angesichts der unsicheren weiteren konjunkturellen Entwicklung, der schlechten Auslastung der Arbeitskräfte in den Unternehmen und der hohen Kurzarbeit erwarten viele Beobachter zum Herbst einen...
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active labor market policy, are only partly reported as unemployment. A review of the evidence on the effectiveness of labor … have alleviated social burdens from unemployment. Discussing what causes the high unemployment in the east, we claim that … effects of wage policy have been overrated. Differences in unemployment rates are also the result of more ample labor supply …
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Full employment in the European Union member states is a challenge but feasible, also in downswings of the business cycle and during stages of increased robotization. It requires a labor legislation that ensures flexibility and retraining, responsive labor sharing during the business cycle and...
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We sketch a visionary strategy for Europe in which full employment is quickly regained by 2020, income inequality is reduced and the economies are more sustainable. We call this scenario "vibrant". It is contrasted with what would happen if present policies continue within the European Union...
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