This paper shows that for five small commodity-exporting countries that have adopted inflation targeting monetary policies, world commodity price aggregates have predictive power for their CPI and PPI inflation, particularly once possible structural breaks are taken into account. This conclusion...

In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...

We explore the possibility of structural breaks in realized volatility with observed long-memory properties for the daily Deutschemark/Dollar, Yen/Dollar and Yen/Deutschemark spot exchange rate realized volatility. We find that structural breaks can partly explain the persistence of realized...

Using Bayesian methods, we re-examine the empirical evidence from Ben-David, Lumsdaine and Pappell (“Unit Roots, Postwar Slowdowns and Long-Run Growth: Evidence from Two Structural Breaks”, Empirical Economics, 28, 2003) regarding structural breaks in the long-run growth path of real output...

The Ecient Method of Moments (EMM) estimator popularized by Gallant and Tauchen (1996) is an indirect inference estimator based on the simulated auxiliary score evaluated at the sample estimate of the auxiliary parameters. We study an alternative estimator that uses the sample auxiliary score...

We use realized volatilities based on after hours high frequency returns to predict next day volatility. We extend GARCH and long-memory forecasting models to include additional information: the whole night, the preopen, the postclose realized variance, and the overnight squared return. For four...

We combine the efficient method of moments with appropriate algorithms from the optimal filtering literature to study a collection of models for the U.S. short rate. Our models include two continuous-time stochastic volatility models and two regime switching models, which provided the best fit...

We analyze the structural determinants of two widely used measures of price discovery between multiple markets that trade closely-related securities. Using a structural cointegration model, we show that both the information share (IS) and component share (CS) measures account for the relative...