In this paper we propose a new approach for the econometric analysis of the dynamics of price discovery using a structural cointegration model for the price changes in arbitrage linked markets. Our methodology characterizes the dynamics of price discovery based on the impulse response functions...

This paper shows that for five small commodity-exporting countries that have adopted inflation targeting monetary policies, world commodity price aggregates have predictive power for their CPI and PPI inflation, particularly once possible structural breaks are taken into account. This conclusion...

Many researchers believe that the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition leads to permanent and transitory components whose shocks are perfectly negatively correlated. Indeed, some even consider it to be a property of the decomposition. We demonstrate that the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition does not...

This paper reconciles two widely-used decompositions of GDP into trend and cycle that yield starkly different results. Beveridge-Nelson (BN) implies that a stochastic trend accounts for most of the variation in output, while Unobserved-Components (UC) implies cyclical variation is dominant....

We establish the relationships between certain Bayesian and classical approaches to instrumental variables regression. We determine the form of priors that lead to posteriors for structural parameters that have similar properties as classical 2SLS and LIML and in doing so provide some new...

Using an array of unit root and structural break tests we find that the trend behavior of two air pollutants, Nitrogen Oxides (NOX) and Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs), is substantially different. VOCs emissions are found to be trend-stationary with a break at the time the Clean Air Act of...

This paper reconciles two widely-used decompositions of GDP into trend and cycle that yield starkly different results. Beveridge-Nelson (BN) implies that a stochastic trend accounts for most of the variation in output, while Unobserved-Components (UC) implies cyclical variation is dominant....

This paper gives a tour through the empirical analysis of univariate GARCH models for financial time series with stops along the way to discuss various practical issues associated with model specification, estimation, diagnostic evaluation and forecasting.