Stellt sich das Investitionsklima für deutsche Unternehmen seit der Krise von 1997/98 in Korea tatsächlich so positiv dar, wie Medienberichte und Wirtschaftszahlen suggerieren oder ist die Entwicklung möglicherweise nur auf einige wenige "Großeinkäufe" deutscher Großunternehmen...

In this paper we investigate whether cross-sectional information from local equity marketscontained information on devaluation expectations during the Asian crisis. We concentrate onthe information content of equity prices as these markets were in general the largest and mostliquid at the time...

The objective of this paper is to implement a prototype of a currency crisis modelas part of an early warning system framework for Uganda. The financial systemsof developing countries like Uganda are especially vulnerable and therefore robustinstruments to predict crises are needed. Our model is...

Mit dem Abschluss der Beitrittsabkommen undihrem Beitritt zur EU am 1. Mai 2004 haben dieneuen Mitgliedstaaten sich auch verpfl ichtet, denEuro als gemeinsame Währung einzuführen. DasDatum hängt jedoch nicht zuletzt davon ab,wann die Neumitglieder die fünf Kriterien (Inflation, Haushaltsdefi...

Will outsourcing be a winner or loser from the global crisis? This sector has been a major beneficiary of the boom in business services trade since the mid-1990s, coinciding with the rise of emerging market economies. This growth survived – indeed was arguably a beneficiary of – the last...

We investigate the information content of aggregate stock market liquidity and askwhether it may be a useful realtime indicator, both for nancial stress, and real economicactivity in Norway. We describe the development in a set of liquidity proxies at the OsloStock Exchange (OSE) for the period...

[...]We begin by discussing the so-called first generation ofmodels, in which crises are viewed in the literature as theunavoidable result of unsustainable policies or fundamentalimbalances. Next, we survey the literature on the secondgeneration of models, which highlights the possibility of...

[...]A key observation is that import and export prices roughlytracked each other, with both tracking the behavior of worldtradable goods prices. Indeed, trade prices were fallingthroughout Asia by similar magnitudes, regardless of howmuch each country’s currency depreciated. For both...

[...]In our view, this apparently surprising immunity of the U.S.economy to the Asia crisis reflects the fact that the original wayof thinking about the crisis was flawed. First, it focused only ondemand-side channels and ignored the supply side. Second, thedepreciation of the Asian currencies...