This paper investigates whether the inherent non-stationarity of macroeconomic time series is entirely due to a random walk or also to non-linear components. Applying the numerical tools of the analysis of dynamical systems to long time series for the US, we reject the hypothesis that these...

When the equilibrium of the economy depends on the coordinationof actions of a large number of agents the level of optimism can be-come a deciding factor. We propose an equilibrium selection processwhere the level of optimism is endogenously determined...

In this paper we introduce a new test of the null hypothesis of nocointegration between a pair of time series. For a very simple generating model, ourtest compares favourably with the Engle-Granger/Dickey-Fuller test and the Johansentrace test. Indeed, shortcomings of the former motivated the...

The Report has been prepared on the specific instructions of BEER. It is our understanding that BERR wishes to use the Report to inform the policy discussion about how to assist businesses moving to a low carbon and resource-efficiency economy. The Report should not be relied upon for any other...

[...]Our analysis is composed of three parts. First, we provide adiscussion of what the effects of welfare reform on thecomposition of the caseload—primarily measured by labormarket skill level—should be, in principle. Perhaps surprisingly,we argue that different welfare reform policies...

Mit Hilfe der vorliegenden Disseration soll geklärt werden, in wie weit sich die Betriebstwirtschaftslehre in Südkorea der Umweltschutzproblematik annimmt.

In the view of most policymakers and economists,competition in retail banking takes place in localmarkets covering a relatively small geographic area.Banks are thought to design their services and settheir loan and deposit rates in response to the supply anddemand conditions prevailing in a...

This paper explores the connections betweenbroad economic indicators in the New Yorkmetropolitan region and their national counterparts.It compares the performance of theregion in recent years with that of the nation and assessesthe importance of national and local developments for thearea’s...

[...]This paper investigates employment fluctuationsin the New York metropolitan area with the goal of understandingthe similarities and differences between theregion and the rest of the nation. The investigation has twoparts. The first part describes cyclical movements andlong-run shifts in...