This paper analyzes forward-looking rules for Swiss monetary policy in a small structural VAR model consisting of four variables taking into account data revisions for GDP. First, the paper develops an analytical method to analyze the effect of data revision errors in GDP on the ex ante or...

Die Frage nach der Kausalität fällt in die Methodologie. Methodologie ist in denWirtschaftswissenschaften ein Bereich, der sowohl bei Ökonomen als auch bei Philosophenkaum Beachtung findet. ....

This paper evaluates the predictive power of different information sets for the European Central Bank(ECB) interest rate setting behavior. We employ an ordered probit model, i.e. a limited dependent variableframework, to take into account the discreteness displayed by policy rate changes. The...

When a policymaker is better informed than the public, public beliefs about the hidden informationemerge as additional state variables, managed by the policymaker. General methodsare presented to compute optimal commitment and discretion policies.Under commitment, policy is additive in two...

Monetary policy is most effective when public beliefs about future policies are activelymanaged. This is the appeal of policy rules and commitment strategies, typically absent underdiscretion. But when a policymaker has some private information — as is the case in reality— belief management...

This paper examines the impact of monetary policy on UK firms’ access to bank and market finance whenallowance is made for differences in firm-specific characteristics. A theoretical model determines the cut-off valuesfor project profitability that would allow firms to access bank or market...

This paper investigates the role of trade credit in the transmissionof monetary policy. Most models of the transmission mechanism allowthe firm to access only financial markets or bank lending according tosome net worth criterion. In our model we introduce trade creditas an additional source of...

We develop and analyse a simple general equilibrium model withcapital market imperfections We find that the impact of monetarypolicy on real economic activity depends on the initial distributionof wealth in the economy. Changes in the opportunity cost of fundsaffect not only the choice of...

An optimizingmodel, with a flexible-price sector and a sticky-price sector, ispresented to analyze the effects of relative-price changes on inflation fluctuations. Therelative price of the flexible-price good represents a shift parameter of the NewKeynesian Phillips curve. The optimal monetary...

We describe a behavior of a central bank when its measures of current inflation and outputare subject to measurement errors, in a framework of optimizing models with nominal pricestickiness. In our model, a central bank sets the interest rate equal to its current estimate of theso-called...