This paper proposes a habit formation model that explains the failure of the expectations hypothesis documented by Campbell and Shiller (1991) and Fama and Bliss (1987).(...)

This paper shows that preferences alone cannot explain the patterns reported in the literature.

The objective of operations on futures markets may be either hedging or speculation. In this paper, we wish to give a desciption of futures markets with two groups of operators with heterogeneous expectations: hedgers-speculators, and pure speculators.(...)

We investigate a consumption-based present value relation that is a function of future dividend growth. Using data on aggregate consumption and measures of the dividend payments from aggregate wealth, we show that changing forecasts of dividend growth are an important feature of the post-war...

In a stochastic duopoly market, sellers must form state-specific aspirationsexpressing how much they want to earn given their expectationsabout the other's behavior. We define individually and mutually satisficingsales behavior for given individual beliefs and aspiration profiles. In afirst...

The satisficing approach with its three constituent processes, aspiration formation,satisficing, and aspiration adjustment, is formally elaborated for a specificclass of portfolio selection tasks. It is partly poorly confirmed by experimentaldata, indicating that bounded rationality requires...

The paper explores the applicability of the satisficing approach. Inparticular, we investigate whether basic principles of aspiration formationand satisficing behavior are transferable between similar situations.Individuals are sequentially confronted with two risky investmenttasks, a simple and...

This paper examines simple parimutuel betting games under asymmetric information,with particular attention to differences between markets in which bets are submittedsimultaneously versus sequentially. In the simultaneous parimutuel betting market, all(symmetric and asymmetric) Bayesian-Nash...