The objective of this paper is to implement a prototype of a currency crisis modelas part of an early warning system framework for Uganda. The financial systemsof developing countries like Uganda are especially vulnerable and therefore robustinstruments to predict crises are needed. Our model is...

On 5 December 1925, the ‘Portuguese Bank Note Bubble’ burst. The Lisbon daily newspaper, O Século (The Century), revealed the swindle in the headline ‘O Pais em Crise’ (The Country in Crisis). The article describes how twenty-eight year old white-collar worker, Artur Virgilio Alves...

The article reflects the present banking and financial crisis on basis of latest research results about the existence of superior economic and financial order acting within the real world (equal natural world). Within this order (equal natural order) observably all creatures use different types...

The article reflects the present banking and financial crisis on basis of latest research about the existence of superior economic and financial order within the real world (equal natural world). Within this order (equal natural order) observably all creatures use different types of energy like...

Credit default swap portfolio securities lending program, inability to access capital markets, credit rating downgrade

This paper examines the question to what extent premia for macroeconomic risks inbanking are sufficient to avoid banking crises. We investigate a competitive bankingsystem embedded in an overlapping-generations model subject to repeatedmacroeconomic shocks. We show that even if banks fully...

Survey data from Bulgaria show that people who had experienced a loss during a banking crisisare significantly more likely to expect a new crisis. This result holds despite 12 years betweenthe earlier crisis and the survey, and the dramatically improved performance of the financialsector and the...

Government-nanced bank restructuring programs, occasionally costing up to 50% of GDP,are commonly used to resolve banking crises. We analyze the Ramsey-optimal paths of bankrecapitalization programs that weigh recapitalization benets and costs under dierent nancingoptions. In our model bank...