New Keynesian models of monetary policy predict no role for monetary aggregates, in the sense that the level of output, prices, and interest rates can be determined without knowledge of the quantity of money. This paper evaluates the empirical validity of this prediction by studying the effects...

We model multiyear loss distributions based on credit scores and macroeconomic risk drivers. In a two-step approach, we first model future default probabilities as functions of these risk factors and, second, model processes for the risk factors themselves. As an essential extension to one-year...

Veränderungen in der Erwerbslandschaft, der demographische Wandel und die Globalisierunggelten neben anderen Einfl ussfaktoren wie derErosion der Finanzierungsbasis der sozialen Sicherungssystemeund der Staatsverschuldung als wesentlicheGründe für eine Neuausrichtung desSozialstaats. Diese...

Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciations across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link - the consumption/real-exchange-rate anomaly or...

Die vorliegende Studie beschäftigt sich mit der Frage nach dem geeigneten operativenZiel der Geldpolitik, wenn Zentralbanken zwar das Zinsniveau unmittelbar undkontinuierlich (z.B. täglich) beobachten können, Daten zu Preisniveau undProduktionsniveau jedoch nur periodisch (z.B. monats- oder...

Diese Studie untersucht, ob Veränderungen kurzfristiger Zinsen die Kosten liquider Mittel beeinflussen und somit über Preissetzungsentscheidungen der Firmen auf die Inflationsdynamik in Industrieländern wirken. Barth und Ramey (2001) haben zum Beispiel für die USA gezeigt, dass...

In this paper, we examine formally Keynes' idea that higher order beliefs can drivea wedge between an asset price and its fundamental value based on expected future payoffs. In a dynamic noisy rational expectations model, higher order expectations add an additional term, which we call the higher...

We study identification in a class of linear rational expectations models. For any givenexactly identified model, we provide an algorithm that generates a class of equivalentmodels that have the same reduced form. We use our algorithm to show that a modelproposed by Jess Benhabib and Roger...

We extend the basic (representative-household) New Keynesian [NK] model ofthe monetary transmission mechanism to allow for a spread between the interestrate available to savers and borrowers, that can vary for either exogenous orendogenous reasons. We nd that the mere existence of a positive...