In this paper we carry over the concept of reverse probabilistic representations developed in Milstein, Schoenmakers, Spokoiny (2004) for diffusion processes, to discrete time Markov chains. We outline the construction of reverse chains in several situations and apply this to processes which are...

In diesem Beitrag wird ein quantitatives Evaluierungsmodell für Multi-Level Marketingsysteme entwickelt. Das Verfahren erlaubt die Abbildungunterschiedlicher Unternehmensstrukturen, ausgehend von einemMitarbeiter-Akquisemodell. Die so gewonnene Struktur dient als Simulationsgerüst für...

Atheoretical regression trees (ART) are applied to detect changes in the mean of a stationarylong memory time series when location and number are unknown. It is shownthat the BIC, which is almost always used as a pruning method, does not operate well inthe long memory framework.[...]

In this paper, we discuss the derivation and application of a bivariate ordered probit modelwith mixed effects. Our approach allows one to estimate the distribution of the effect (gamma) of anendogenous ordered variable on an ordered explanatory variable. By allowing gamma to vary over...

Data on contestants’ choices in Italian Game Show Affari Tuoi are analysed in a way that separatesthe effect of risk attitude (preferences) from that of beliefs concerning the amount ofmoney that will be offered to contestants in future rounds. The most important issue addressedin the paper is...

An equity-linked life insurance contract combines an endowment life insurance and an investment strategy with a minimum guarantee. The benefit of this contract is determined by the guaranteed amount plus a bonus equal to a call on the portfolio. This bonus is similar to an Asian option. We...

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of stochastic interest rates on the pricing of Asian options. It is shown that a stochastic, in contrast to a deterministic, development of the term structure of interest rates has a significant influence. The price of the underlying asset, e.g....

Longevity risk has become a major challenge for governments, individuals, andannuity providers in most countries, and especially its aggregate form, i.e. therisk of unsystematic changes to general mortality patterns, bears a large potentialfor accumulative losses for insurers. As obvious risk...

SEM researchers use Monte-Carlo simulations to ascertain the robustness of statisticalestimators and the performance of various fit indices under varying conditions of nonnormality.The efficacy of these Monte-Carlo simulations is closely related to thegeneration of non-normal data....

We introduce a new discounted cash flow model which adopts the diversification effectof multi-business firms. We face two challenges: One is examining how different diversificationextents can affect the firm value due to risk reduction, and the other is modelingsegment-specific cash flows and...