This paper proposes a novel approach to the combination of conditional covariancematrix forecasts based on the use of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Itis shown how the procedure can be generalized to deal with large dimensional systemsby means of a two-step strategy. The finite sample...

This paper studies asset allocation decisions in the presence of regime switching in asset returns. Wefind evidence that four separate regimes - characterized as crash, slow growth, bull and recovery states- are required to capture the joint distribution of stock and bond returns. Optimal asset...

Analysts providing more accurate earnings forecasts also issue moreprofitable recommendations. We demonstrate how investors can profit fromthis contemporaneous link by differentiating between “able” and “lucky”analysts. In line with previous studies, we find that past track records...

We present evidence of the impact of buy-side analysts on the behavior and performanceof fund managers. Using data provided by a large global asset manager,we relate buy-side analysts’ recommendations to fund transactions on a daily basis.Our results show that buy-side analysts have a...

Investors need performance measures particularly as a means for funds selection in the process of exanteportfolio optimization. Unfortunately, there are various performance measures recommended for differentdecision situations. Since an investor may be uncertain which kind of decision problem is...

We used neural-network based modelling to generalize the linear econometric return models and compare their out-of-sample predictive ability in terms of different performance measures under three density specifications.(...)

The estimation of multivariate GARCH models remains a challenging task, even in modern computer environments. This manuscript shows how Independent Component Analysiscan be used to estimate the Generalized Orthogonal GARCH model in a fraction of the time otherwise required. The proposed method...

We consider the modelling of rare events in financial time series,and introduce a marked point process model for the excesses of thetime series over a high threshold that combines a self-exciting processfor the exceedances with a mark (size) dependent process. This allowsrealistic models for...

I examine determinants of stochastic relative risk aversion in conditional asset pricing models. I first develop time-series specification tests with nonlinear state-space models with heteroskedasticity based on Merton (1973)'s ICAPM. I then established the following facts. First, the surplus...

The recent financial crisis has accentuated the fact that extreme outcomes have been overlookedand not dealt with adequately. While extreme value theories have existed for a long time, themultivariate variant is difficult to handle in the financial markets due to the prevalentheteroskedasticity...