While it is widely agreed that Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) holds as a long-runconcept the specific dynamic driving the process is largely build upon a priori economicbelief rather than a thorough statistical modeling procedure. The two prevailing timeseries models, i.e. the exponential smooth...

This paper extends the cross sectionally augmented panel unit root test proposed byPesaran (2007) to the case of a multifactor error structure. The basic idea is to exploitinformation regarding the unobserved factors that are shared by other time series in additionto the variable under...

We consider time series models in which the conditional mean of the response variable given thepast depends on latent covariates. We assume that the covariates can be estimated consistentlyand use an iterative nonparametric kernel smoothing procedure for estimating the conditional meanfunction....

Determining good parameter estimates in ESTAR models is known to be difficult. We showthat the phenomena of getting strongly biased estimators is a consequence of the so-calledidentication problem, the problem of properly distinguishing the transition function in relationto extreme parameter...

This paper uses dimension asymptotics to study why overfit linear regression models shouldbe compared out-of-sample; we let the number of predictors used by the larger model increasewith the number of observations so that their ratio remains uniformly positive. Under this limittheory, the naive...

In recent years, credit risk has played a key role in risk management issues. Practitioners, academics and regulators have been fully involved in the process of developing, studying and analyzing credit risk models in order to find the elements which characterize a sound risk management system.(...)

We revisit the apparent historical success of technical trading rules on daily prices of the Dow Jones index. First, we use the False Discovery Rate as a new approach to data snooping. The advantage of the FDR over existing methods is that it is more powerful and not restricted only to the best...