[...]To explore these questions, we present the firstsystematic analysis of the determinants and impact of thesovereign credit ratings assigned by the two leading U.S.agencies, Moody’s Investors Service and Standard andPoor’s.1 Such an analysis has only recently become possibleas a result of...

[...]This article develops a stylized game-theoretical model toanalyze banks’ intraday liquidity management behavior in anRTGS environment. It analyzes the strategic incentives under Envision an economy with two identical banks using an RTGSsystem operated by the central bank to settle...

[...]In this article, we assess the evidence in support of a bubblein U.S. home prices and discuss whether a severe decline inthese prices is likely. We also examine the effects of a steep dropin home prices on the broader national economy. Examining the possible effects of a severe decline in...

[...]In this article, we model the relationship between goodsinflation and services inflation from 1967:2 to 2002:4. To helpinform the inflation debate, we then use our results to forecastinflation for 2003. The specific inflation series that we model isthe quarterly change (at an annual rate)...

[...]This article examines the origins and early development ofthe Federal Reserve’s book-entry system—the system mostclosely associated with the elimination of definitive, orcertificated, Treasury securities. We suggest that the Fed’ssystem was the product of three important factors: the...

[...]This article is organized as follows. In the next section, wediscuss the basics of deferred settlement systems, and in Section 3we describe the systems used in our simulations. In Section 4,we describe the performance metrics and results of the basicsimulations, and in Section 5 we conduct...

[...]In this article, we demonstrate how such industry-specific realexchange rates can be constructed and present the recent pathsof these indexes. We next present three basic real exchange ratemeasures for each industry: one using export partner weightsonly, a second using import partner...

[...]In this article, we pursue a transaction-oriented line ofresearch to help track short-term exchange rate movements. Byexamining a publicly available data set well known to currencymarket analysts—net positions held by speculators in thefutures market—we are able to document a strong...

[...]This article examines the introduction of regular auctionofferings of Treasury notes and bonds in the early 1970s. We donot take issue with the conventional wisdom that auctions aremore efficient and less costly than fixed-price offerings. Rather,we seek to identify why the Treasury twice...

[...]This article describes the U.S. experience with inflationindexeddebt, including the evolution of activity in the TIISmarket since its inception and the valuation of those securitiesrelative to nominal Treasury issues. We show that despite thepotential appeal of TIIS, their yields have been...