Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciations across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link - the consumption/real-exchange-rate anomaly or...

We model multiyear loss distributions based on credit scores and macroeconomic risk drivers. In a two-step approach, we first model future default probabilities as functions of these risk factors and, second, model processes for the risk factors themselves. As an essential extension to one-year...

Veränderungen in der Erwerbslandschaft, der demographische Wandel und die Globalisierunggelten neben anderen Einfl ussfaktoren wie derErosion der Finanzierungsbasis der sozialen Sicherungssystemeund der Staatsverschuldung als wesentlicheGründe für eine Neuausrichtung desSozialstaats. Diese...