We address one interesting case — the predictability of excess US asset returns from macroeconomic factors within a flexible regime switching VAR framework — in which the presence of regimes may lead to superior forecasting performance from forecast combinations. After having documented that...

The production planning with renewable resources faces several special problems compared tocommon planning methods with inputs which are “always available”. Due to their unsteadiness ingrowth, external influences like weather and natural resources and specific transport and...

The science/public/policy relationship is subject to deep changes. Taking these changesas a starting point, the following paper examines the changing foresight landscape in theEuropean Union, both from an institutional and from a methodological perspective. Thenecessity for a reorganisation of...

Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of manyinstitutions. However, to the best of our knowledge their performance has notbeen investigated yet. In this work, we study the Bank of England’s risk forecastsfor inflation. We find that these forecasts do not...

In this papaer, we put DSGE forecasts in competition with factor forecasts. We focus on these two models since they represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic background; the factor model on the other hand is mainly...

This paper discusses pooling versus model selection for now- and forecasting in the pres-ence of model uncertainty with large, unbalanced datasets. Empirically, unbalanceddata is pervasive in economics and typically due to di¤erent sampling frequencies andpublication delays. Two model classes...

Wir wollen in diesem Beitrag zeigen, wie notwendig theoretische Erklärungen der betrieblichen Personalpolitik sind und warum sie - trotz aller Notwendigkeit bisher eher selten sind. Weiterhin wollen wir unseren Weg der Suche nach Erklärungen darstellen: die Methode der Modellkonstruktion, der...

Im Unterschied zu leasingspezifischen Abhandlungen unter Betonung praxisorientierter Fragestellungen, die insbesondere auf geschäftspolitische Untersuchungsgegenstände fokussieren, stellen die folgenden Ausführungen einen Beitrag zur Analyse von Leasing-transaktionen aus der Perspektive der...

In diesem Beitrag zeigen wir, dass theoretische und technologische Aussagensysteme zweieigenständige Forschungszweige darstellen und damit die Notwendigkeit erwächst, eineeigene Methodologie technologischer Aussagensysteme zu entwerfen. Wir stellen ersteAnsatzpunkte vor, wie eine solche...