[...]In this article, we analyze the effects of September 11 on thelonger run prospects for the New York City economy. We findthat, on the one hand, several downside risks to the city’sgrowth outlook have arisen. In a worst-case scenario, theconcentration of the attack on Lower Manhattan has...

[...]This article evaluates the short-term economic consequencesof the attack on Manhattan and the four other boroughsthat make up New York City. We begin with the deepest loss—that of human lives. We then look at the effects of the attack onthe inputs to the production process: labor and...

[...]This study is the first formal investigation ofconsumer attitudes that compares the forecasting power ofthe University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentimentand the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index.We begin with a background analysis of structural differencesbetween the...

[...]This article describes a method by which we may moreaccurately predict regional economic activity. Specifically, wedevelop an index of leading economic indicators (LEI) forNew York State and for New Jersey over the 1972-99 period.We extend our earlier work (Orr, Rich, and Rosen 1999),...

[...]This paper analyzes the industrial restructuringprocess in the New York metropolitan area in the first halfof the 1990s.1 It shows that the restructuring was accompaniedby a decline in the labor force, particularly in NewYork, where the decline persisted through the first half ofthe 1990s....

The boom in nonprime mortgage lending that occurred inthe United States between 2004 and 2006 was quicklyfollowed by rapid increases in the rate of delinquencies andforeclosures on these loans.1 This pronounced deteriorationalarmed investors, the public, and policymakers.2...

[...]This paper empirically examines the spatial and temporalresponses of the New York City economy to a large, butspatially concentrated, exogenous shock to its capital stock:the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Our focus on thecity’s response allows us to draw inferences about how...

Public infrastructure is an important part of a wellfunctioningurban economy. Such infrastructure—definedhere as publicly owned and maintained physical capital—hashistorically played a central role in allowing cities to grow bymitigating or reducing problems such as congested...