Vorliegendes Arbeitspapier analysiert die Einflüsse intertemporaler Renditezusammenhänge und fester Startwerte in Vektorautoregressions-(VAR-) Modellen für stetige Renditen anhand des Vergleichs mit einem statischen Random-Walk-Modell.

This paper estimates a trivariate two-factor conditional version of the Intertemporal CAPM of Merton (1973).

This paper tests a conditional version of Adler and Dumas' (1983) International CAPM with regime switching GARCH parameters.

A large part of the current debate on US stock price behaviorconcentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven byfundamentals or by non-fundamental factors(...)

We implement a long-horizon static and dynamic portfolio allocation involvinga risk-free and a risky asset. This model is calibrated at a quarterly frequencyfor ten European countries. We also use maximum-likelihood estimates andBayesian estimates to account for parameter uncertainty. We nd that...

In this paper, we investigate the asymmetry in the tail dependence between USequity portfolios and the aggregate US market. Given the limited number of ob-servations in the tails of a joint distribution, standard non-parametric measures oftail dependence often have poor nite-sample properties....

This paper studies asset allocation decisions in the presence of regime switching in asset returns. Wefind evidence that four separate regimes - characterized as crash, slow growth, bull and recovery states- are required to capture the joint distribution of stock and bond returns. Optimal asset...

Adverse shocks to stock markets propagate across the world, with a jump in one region of the worldseemingly causing an increase in the likelihood of a different jump in another region of the world.To capture this effect mathematically, we introduce a model for asset return dynamics with a...

This paper examines the price impact of trading intensity on an emerging futures market. Utilizing anovel volume-augmented duration model of price discovery, the intensity effect is decomposed intoliquidity and information components for the MexDer 28-day interest rate futures contract. We...

We systematically examine the comparative predictive performance of a number of alternativelinear and non-linear models for stock and bond returns in the G7 countries. Besides Markovswitching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) regimeswitching...