This paper introduces bond market order flow as a predictor variable in term structuremodels and provides evidence that order flow has forecasting ability over and above thatof forward rates. Both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts show that models includ-ing interdealer order flow outperform...

This paper presents a new method to detect informed trading activities in the options markets.An option trade is identified as informed when it is characterized by an unusual largeincrement in open interest and volume, induces large gains, and is not hedged in the stock market.For the period...

This study examines the lead-lag-relationship between European equity and CDSmarkets in the context of the financial crisis. Previous research identified the stock market tolead the CDS market in an ordinary economic environment. Against the background of ourstudy this lead-lag-relationship...

This paper deals with the modeling of the relationship of European Union Al-lowance spot- and futures-prices within the second commitment period of the Eu-ropean Union Emission Trading Scheme. Based on high frequency data, we analyzecausality in the ¯rst and the second conditional moments. To...

Analysts providing more accurate earnings forecasts also issue moreprofitable recommendations. We demonstrate how investors can profit fromthis contemporaneous link by differentiating between “able” and “lucky”analysts. In line with previous studies, we find that past track records...

This paper studies the effects of investors’ heterogeneous beliefs on the trading volume,price volatility, and liquidity of stocks. Following Kurz and Motolese (2008), wepropose a simple theoretical model to show that the equilibrium stock price is linearlyand positively correlated with market...

The use of technical analysis by financial market professionals is not well understood. Thispaper thus analyzes survey evidence from 692 fund managers in five countries, the vast majorityof whom rely on technical analysis. At a forecasting horizon of weeks, technical analysis isthe most...

This paper extends earlier studies on exchange rate expectations' formation by using newdata and adding information about forecasters' reliance on fundamental analysis for the firsttime. We replicate the conventional result of non rational expectations. Moreover, biases inexpectations are...

Performance fees for portfolio managers are designed to align the managers' goals withthose of the investors and to motivate managers to aquire "superior" information and tomake better investment decisions. A part of the literature analyzes performance fees on thebasis of market valuation. In...

This paper deals with the long-run stock performance after initial public offerings (IPOs) in the German capital market with a larger sample than prior studies and alternative benchmarks (the equally and the value-weighted market portfolio, size portfolios and matching stocks).