Recent research has shown that relaxing the assumptions of complete informationand common knowledge in exchange rate models can shed light on a wide range ofimportant exchange rate puzzles. In this chapter, we review a number of models wehave developed in previous work that relax the strong...

Explaining exchange rates has long been an important but vexing issue in international economics and finance. In recent years, a number of studies have shown that investors' private information plays a central role in determining exchange rates. We demonstrate in this paper that the private...

Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchangerates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despitethis limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecastingpower and thus help policy-makers to prevent...

This paper develops a liquidity measure tailored to the foreign exchange (FX) market, quanties the amount of commonality in liquidity across dierent exchange rates, and determines theextent of liquidity risk premiums embedded in FX returns. The new liquidity measure utilizesultra high frequency...

This paper developes a new methodology to measure conditional dependency between time series each driven by complicated marginal distributions.

After liberalizing international transactions of financial assets, many countries experiencelarge swings in asset prices, capital flows, and aggregate production. This paper studies howthe adjustment to capital account liberalization depends upon the degree of development of adomestic financial...

Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciations across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link - the consumption/real-exchange-rate anomaly or...

Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and...

In financial and economic policy circles concerned with public debt in developingcountries, a rising debt-GDP ratio is interpreted as a signal of overborrowing, warn-ing of debt defaults if strong fiscal corrections are not adopted in time. This papershows why this interpretation is incorrect by...

The ratios of public debt as a share of GDP of Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico were 12 percentagepoints higher on average during the period 1996-2005 than in the period 1990-1995. CostaRica's debt ratio remained stable but at a high level near 50 percent. Is there reason to beconcerned for the...