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European Monetary Union (EMU) strengthened its role relative to the USA. Furthermore, the transatlantic connections have become …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005861279
The aim of this paper is to analyze the hypotheses of German dominanceand asymmetry in the European Monetary System (EMS).Weuse monthly data for British, Dutch, French, German, Italian, Spanishand US interest rates from January 1979 to the second half of 1997. Inparticular, we test the stability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005869200
Stylized facts on output and interest rates in the U.S. have so far proved hard to match with business cycle models. But these findings do not acknowledge that the economy might well be driven by different shocks, and by each in different ways. I estimate covariances of output, nominal and real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005858587
In this paper we adopt a principal components analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of the term structure and employ autoregressive models (AR) to forecast principal components which, in turn, are used to forecast swap rates. Arguing in favor of structural variation, we propose data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860579
In this study we forecast the term structure of FIBOR/EURIBOR swap rates by means of recursive vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In advance, a principal components analysis (PCA) is adopted to reduce the dimensionality of the term structure. To evaluate ex–ante forecasting performance for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005862104
The paper proposes a data driven adaptive model selection strategy. The selection criterionmeasures economic ex-ante forecasting content by means of trading implied cash flows.Empirical evidence suggests that the proposed strategy is neither exposed to selection biasnor to the risk of choosing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005862428
interest rate determination. Theempirical part consists of a cointegration analysis with an error correction mechanism. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866095
This paper addresses the question of the British state of convergence towards the Euro area, compared to the USA. Economically, the analysis is based on dependences in the money and capital markets, namely the uncovered interest parity (UIP) and the expectation hypothesis of the term structure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005854717
The fiscal theory of the price level says that the price level can be made determinate if thegovernment uses fiscal policies such that government liabilities explode unless the price inthe first period is at the “right” level. The policy implications are disturbing, as they callfor rather...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009138463
n this paper we investigate the effectiveness of Bank Indonesia's and Bank of Thailand's monetary policy communication. We focus on two channels of communication: monetary policy statements, and inter-meeting statements. Although the structure of Bank Indonesia's and Bank of Thailand's monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009248835