Showing 1 - 10 of 145
While stochastic volatility models improve on the option pricing error when compared to theBlack-Scholes-Merton model, mispricings remain. This paper uses mixed normalheteroskedasticity models to price options. Our model allows for significant negative skewnessand time varying higher order...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005868652
We implement a long-horizon static and dynamic portfolio allocation involvinga risk-free and a risky asset. This model is calibrated at a quarterly frequencyfor ten European countries. We also use maximum-likelihood estimates andBayesian estimates to account for parameter uncertainty. We nd that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009487000
The New Keynesian Phillips Curve is at the center of two raging empirical debates. First, how can purely forward looking pricing account for the observed persistence in aggregate inflation. Second, price-setting responds to movements in marginal costs, which should therefore be the driving force...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005858242
In a simple New Keynesian model, we derive a closed form solution for the inflationpersistence parameter as a function of the policy weights in the central bank’s Taylorrule. By estimating the time-varying weights that the FED attaches to inflationand the output gap, we show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009248993
We propose a new nonlinear classification method based on a Bayesian "sum-of-trees" model, the Bayesian Additive Classification Tree (BACT), whichextends the Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) method into the classification context. Like BART, the BACT is a Bayesian nonparametric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860755
A stronger long-term orientation is considered a competitive advantage of family firms relative to non-family firms. In this study, we use panel data of U.S. firms and analyze this proposition. Our findings are surprising. Only in when the family is involved in the management of the firm is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005860839
We use a Bayesian dynamic factor model to measure Germanys pre WorldWar I economic activity. The procedure makes better use of existing time seriesdata than historical national accounting. To investigate industrializationwe propose to look at comovement between sectors. We find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005861003
We analyze the impact of short-run economic fluctuations on age-specific mortality usingBayesian time series econometrics and contribute to the debate on the procyclicality ofmortality. For the first time, we examine the differing consequences of economic changesfor all individual age classes....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005862544
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclicalinterdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in oursample into three groups—industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developingeconomies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866173
This paper analyzes the recently documented instability of money demand in theeuro area in the framework of a Markov switching trend model. First, we consider astandard flexible price model with stable money demand, rational expectations, andan exogenous income-money ratio which follows a Markov...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005867935