In this paper we develop a structural equation model with latent variables in an ordinal setting which allows us to test broker-dealer predictive ability of financial market movements. We use a multivariate logit model in a latent factor framework, develop a tractable estimator based on a...

We propose a new dynamic model for volatility and dependence in high dimensions, that allows for departuresfrom the normal distribution, both in the marginals and in the dependence. The dependence is modeled with adynamic canonical vine copula, which can be decomposed into a cascade of bivariate...

We systematically examine the comparative predictive performance of a number of alternativelinear and non-linear models for stock and bond returns in the G7 countries. Besides Markovswitching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) regimeswitching...

We propose an empirical approach to determine the various economic sourcesdriving the US yield curve. We allow the conditional dynamics of the yield at differ-ent maturities to change in reaction to past information coming from several relevantpredictor variables. We consider both endogenous,...

Over the last decade or so, addressing financial instability has become a policy priority. Despite the efforts made, policymakers are still a long way from developing a satisfactory operational framework. A major challenge complicating this task is the "fuzziness" with which financial...

The unfolding financial turmoil in mature economies has prompted the official and private sectors to reconsider policies, business models and risk management practices. Regardless of its future evolution, it already threatens to become one of the defining economic moments of the 21st century....

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminatingbetween competing sources of this return predictability...

The paper presents a comprehensive data set of all bonds issued by the sixteenGerman states (Länder) since 1992. It thus provides a complete picture of acapital market comparable in size to funds raised in the German fixed incomemarket for corporations. The quantitative analysis reveals that...

We propose a technique to avoid spurious detections of jumps in highfrequencydata via an explicit thresholding on available test statistics. Weprove that it eliminates asymptotically all spurious detections. MonteCarlo results show that it performs also well in finite samples. In DowJones...

Many postulated relations in finance imply that expected asset returns should monotonicallyincrease in a certain characteristic. To examine the validity of such a claim, onetypically considers a finite number of return categories, ordered according to the underlyingcharacteristic. A standard...