The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took...

This study finds that a model with internal habit memory allowsto simultaneously explain a series of business cycle and asset pricing puzzles. Compared to the literature, the equity premium puzzle can be resolved in a model with endogenous labor, without giving rise to excessive risk free rate...

The main contribution of this work is to provide a dynamic general equilibrium model of asset allocation, allowing to reconcile economic theory with several puzzling contradictions recently pointed out in the literature: (i) the asset allocation puzzle, (ii) the observed time-variation in...

We prove that in a closed economy without distortionary taxation, the welfare of a representativeconsumer is summarized to a …rst order by the current and expected future values of the Solowproductivity residual in level and by the initial endowment of capital. The equivalence holds if...

A central role for economic policy involves reducing the incidence of systemic downturns,when key economic variables experience joint extreme events. In this paper,we empirically analyze such asymmetric dependence using two approaches, correlationsand copulas. We document four findings. First,...

We prove that the change in welfare of a representative consumer is summarized by thecurrent and expected future values of the standard Solow productivity residual. Theequivalence holds if the representative household maximizes utility while taking pricesparametrically. This result justifies TFP...

Using a standard dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that the interaction of staggered nominal contracts with hyperbolic discounting leads to inflation having significant long-run effects on real variables...

It is argued that migration from Mexico to the US and its corresponding return migration aredetermined by international wage differentials and preferences for origin. We use a model ofjob search, savings and migration to show that job turnover is a crucial determinant of themigration process...

We present a dynamic general equilibrium model with agency costs, where heterogeneous firms choose among two alternative instruments of external finance - corporate bonds and bank loans. We characterize the financing choice of firms and the endogenous financial structure of the economy. The...

We study the effects of liquidity constraints and start-up costs on the relationship betweenwealth and the fraction of entrepreneurs in an economy. We develop a dynamic occupationalchoice model with endogenous wealth and entry into entrepreneurship...