Recent research has shown that relaxing the assumptions of complete informationand common knowledge in exchange rate models can shed light on a wide range ofimportant exchange rate puzzles. In this chapter, we review a number of models wehave developed in previous work that relax the strong...

Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciations across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link - the consumption/real-exchange-rate anomaly or...

Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and...

Motivated by the recurrent Neural Networks, this paper proposes a recurrent Support Vector Regression (SVR) procedure to forecast nonlinear ARMA model based simulated data and real data of financial returns. The forecasting ability of the recurrent SVR is compared with three competing methods,...

We look at how large international datasets can improve forecasts of national activity. Weuse the case of New Zealand, an archetypal small open economy. We apply “data-rich” factorand shrinkage methods to tackle the problem of efficiently handling hundreds of predictordata series from many...

In this paper we question the consensus of using a binary crisisdefinition for empirical crisis models. We believe that the most severeshortcomings of the crisis models today are in the crisis definition rather than the explanatory variables ...

As past research suggest, currency exposure risk is a main source of overall risk of internationaldiversified portfolios. Thus, controlling the currency risk is an important instrument forcontrolling and improving investment performance of international investments. This studyexamines the...

We study the impact of Central Bank intervention on the process of price formation in currency markets. We use a unique dataset of tick-by-tick indicative quotes posted by dealers on Reuters terminals and of intraday sterilized spot interventions and customer transactions executed on behalf of...

Diese Studie untersucht die formale Aussage, dass in kleinen offenen Volkswirtschaften flexible Wechselkurse eine 'sckockabsorbierende Wirkung' entfalten und exogene Störungen effektiver als feste Wechselkurse mildern. Ein intertemporales Modell mit nominalen Rigiditäten zeigt die...

In this paper, the influence of information costs on the integration of Northern European financial markets between ca. 1350 and 1560 is explored. The approach is based on splitting information costs into their constitutive components and on measuring one of these, i.e. the costs of transmitting...