According to housing investment models, house prices and replacement costshould have an equilibrating relationship. Previous empirical work|mainlybased on aggregate-level data|has found only little evidence of such a relationship.By using a unique data set, covering transactions of...

Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of manyinstitutions. However, to the best of our knowledge their performance has notbeen investigated yet. In this work, we study the Bank of England’s risk forecastsfor inflation. We find that these forecasts do not...

The mid-term and long-term growth potential of China’s insurance industry is a subject ofsignificant interest to governments, business and academia. In this paper, the ‘‘worldinsurance growth curve’’ is used in conjunction with estimates of China’s future GDPgrowth to estimate the...

Most treatments of the Great Depression have focused on its onset and its aftermath. In contrast, we take a unified view of the interwar period. We look at the slide into and the emergence from the 1920-21 recession and the roaring 1920s boom, as well as the slide into the Great Depression after...

Nominal and real U.S. interest rates (1997–2007) are combined with inflationexpectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to calculate time series ofrisk premia. It is shown that survey data on inflation and output growth uncertainty,as well as a proxy for liquidity premia can...

Das vorliegende Papier verfolgt, den empirischen Zusammenhang zwischen den realen Aktienmarktniveaus von Deutschland und den USA zur Aktienmarktprognose zu verwenden ...

This paper tests whether out-of-sample hedonic value predictions can be improved when a large urban housing market is divided into submarkets.

In this paper we want to discuss macroscopic and microscopicproperties of financial markets. By analyzing quantitatively a database consisting of 13 minute per minute recorded financial time series, we identify some macroscopic statistical properties of the corresponding markets, with a special...