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throughout history. Rural citizens in developing countries to-day, however, remain highly exposed to fluctuations in the weather … signicant mortality and morbidity stress that rural households face in times ofadverse weather (Burgess, Deschenes, Donaldson … nominalagricultural income and acutely high food prices { are an extreme manifestation of this mapping from weather to death. Knowles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009248834
In this paper we price a precipitation option based on empirical weather data from Germanyusing different pricing … that a considerable risk remainswith producers who are located remotely from the weather station. Another finding isthat … weather derivatives. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009302563
weather events on changes in public budgets. We applyalternative measures for large scale extreme weather events and conclude … countries face a much larger effect on changes inbudget balances following an extreme weather event than do advanced economies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866589
We used neural-network based modelling to generalize the linear econometric return models and compare their out-of-sample predictive ability in terms of different performance measures under three density specifications.(...)
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005844728
The estimation of multivariate GARCH models remains a challenging task, even in modern computer environments. This manuscript shows how Independent Component Analysiscan be used to estimate the Generalized Orthogonal GARCH model in a fraction of the time otherwise required. The proposed method...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005857739
We consider the modelling of rare events in financial time series,and introduce a marked point process model for the excesses of thetime series over a high threshold that combines a self-exciting processfor the exceedances with a mark (size) dependent process. This allowsrealistic models for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005858382
I examine determinants of stochastic relative risk aversion in conditional asset pricing models. I first develop time-series specification tests with nonlinear state-space models with heteroskedasticity based on Merton (1973)'s ICAPM. I then established the following facts. First, the surplus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005870706
The recent financial crisis has accentuated the fact that extreme outcomes have been overlookedand not dealt with adequately. While extreme value theories have existed for a long time, themultivariate variant is difficult to handle in the financial markets due to the prevalentheteroskedasticity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005870713
Controllability of longer-term interest rates requires that the persis-tence of their deviations from the central bank's policy rate (i.e. thepolicy spreads) remains suffciently low. This paper applies fractionalintegration techniques to assess the persistence of policy spreads ofeuro area money...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005865428
This paper proposes a novel approach to the combination of conditional covariancematrix forecasts based on the use of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Itis shown how the procedure can be generalized to deal with large dimensional systemsby means of a two-step strategy. The finite sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005865451