Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciations across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link - the consumption/real-exchange-rate anomaly or...

Over the past 15 years there has been remarkable progress in the specification and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Central banks in developed and emerging market economies have become increasingly interested in their usefulness for policy analysis and...

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) has recently been discussed in the financial literature as an effective way to account for model uncertainty. In this paper we compare BMA to a new model uncertainty framework introduced by Yang (2004), called Aggregate Forecasting Through Exponential Reweighting,...

Recent research has shown that relaxing the assumptions of complete informationand common knowledge in exchange rate models can shed light on a wide range ofimportant exchange rate puzzles. In this chapter, we review a number of models wehave developed in previous work that relax the strong...

We present a gravity model that accounts for multilateral resistance, firm heterogeneity and country-selectioninto trade, while accommodating asymmetries in trade flows. A new equation for the proportion of exporting…firms takes a gravity form: the extensive margin is also accected by...

Do better trade logistics reduce trade costs, raising a country´s exports? Yes, but the magnitude of the effectdepends on country size. Applying a new gravity model to a comprehensive logistics index, we …nd that anaverage-sized country would raise exports by about 46% after a one-standard...