We study beliefs and choices in a repeated normal-form game. In addition to a baseline treatment with common knowledge of the game structure and feedback about choices in the previous period, we run treatments (i) without feedback about previous play, (ii) with no information about the...

We study two person-betting games with inconsistent commonly know beliefs, using an experimentalapproach. In our experimental games, participants bet against one another, each bettorchoosing one of two possible outcomes, and payoff odds are know at the time bets are placed.Bettors’ beliefs are...

The goal of this paper is to assess, for the first time, the empirical impact of "Kaynes' beauty contest", or "higher order belief", on asset price volatility. The paper shows that heterogeneous expectations induce higher order beliefs and that heterogeneous expectation asset pricing models...

Die mit unterschiedlichen Organisationsformen des Wertpapierhandels einhergehende Liquidität und ihre Messung ist eine der zentralen Fragen im Zusammenhang mit der Gestaltung von Wertpapiermärkten. Zunächst wird die Eignung verschiedener in der Literatur vorgeschlagener Liquiditätsmaße...

The overvaluation hypothesis (Miller 1977) predicts that a) stocks are overvalued inthe presence of short selling restrictions and that b) the overvaluation increases in the degree ofdivergence of opinion. We design an experiment that allows us to test these predictions in thelaboratory. The...

The unmediated call auction is a useful trading mechanism to aggregate dispersedinformation. Its ability to incorporate information of a single informed insider,however, is less well understood. We analyse this question by presenting a simplecall auction game where both auction prices and limit...

A simple asset pricing model with two types of adaptively learning traders, fundamentalists and technical analysts, is studied. Fractions of these trader types, which are both boundedly rational, change over time according to evolutionary learning, with technical analysts conditioning their...

Okun's Law postulates an inverse relationship between movements of the unemployment rate and the real gross domestic product (GDP). Empirical estimates for US data indicate that a two to three percent GDP growth rate above the natural or average GDP growth rate causes unemployment to decrease by...

The trend towards Internet self-regulation is driven both by gov-ernments that feel reluctant to invest in direct regulation (because offreedom of speech concerns or high cots of monitoring and enforce-ment) and by the industry that is under the threat of rising publicconcerns over content...

The quadratic scoring rule (QSR) is often used to guarantee an incentive compatibleelicitation of subjective probabilities over events. Experimentalists haveregularly not been able to ensure that subjects fully comprehend the consequencesof their actions on payoffs given the rules of the games....