We use a unique dataset of bond downgrades from a niche rating company that has been found to be reacting faster to publicly available information than its competitors. Using regime-switching models we propose risk measures to quantify stock return disturbances (distress costs) associated with...

We construct a model for pricing sovereign debt that accounts for the risks of both default and restructuring, and allows for compensation for illiquidity. Using a new and relatively efficient method, we estimate the model using Russian dollar-denominated bonds.(...)

In this paper we first investigate the validity of a general Value at Risk approach, which iswidely used for risk management in banking and insurance companies. We discuss and widely rejectthe conventional assumptions, e.g. independent identically distributed normal returns, and as...

This paper develops a model and estimate simultaneously the joint dynamics of default-free and defaultable bond term structures.

Recently, Diebold and Li (2003) obtained good forecasting results foryield curves in a reparametrized Nelson-Siegel framework. We analyze similarmodeling approaches for price curves of variance swaps that serve nowadaysas hedging instruments for options on realized variance. We consider the...

We investigate the evolution of health over the life-cycle. We allow for two sources of persistence: unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence. Estimation indicates that there is a large degree of heterogeneity. For half the population, there are modest degrees of state dependence...

We introduce a Nelson-Siegel type interest rate term structure model with the underlying yield factors following autoregressive processes revealing time-varying stochastic volatility. The factor volatilities capture risk inherent to the term structure and are associated with the time-varying...

With the New Basle Capital Accord banks’ capital requirements are determined with risk weights based on internaland external ratings and probabilities of default (PD’s). PD’s are mostly estimated from historical defaultrates. In recent working papers the Basle Committee on Banking...

The main aim of this paper is to demonstrate the relationship between changes in theownership structure and the development of life insurance companies in Poland. The simpleregression model is used to reveal the relation. The findings of this study, that the solvencyratio, overall indebtedness...

This paper focuses on the robust Effcient Method of Moments (EMM) estimation of a general parametric stationary process and proposes a broad framework for constructing robust EMM statistics in this context. This extends the application field of robust statistics to very general time series...