In the era of Basel II a powerful tool for bankruptcy prognosis isvital for banks. The tool must be precise but also easily adaptable tothe bank's objections regarding the relation of false acceptances (TypeI error) and false rejections (Type II error). We explore the suitabil-ity of Smooth...

Eine große Herausforderung der multivariablen Analyse mit bilanziellen Kennzahlen besteht in der Identifikation derjenigen Kennzahlen, die zur besten Modellperformance führen und dabei möglichst leicht interpretierbar und intuitiv bleiben. Die Menge der in Frage kommenden Kennzahlen ist in...

Die Prognose der Insolvenzgefährdung von Unternehmen anhand statistischer Methodik war und ist eine bedeutende Aufgabe empirischer Forschung. Eine Möglichkeit der Beurteilung der finanziellen bzw. wirtschaftlichen Verfassung von Unternehmen stellt die sog. externe Bilanzanalyse anhand...

We use dynamic panel analysis to examine whether credit rating agencies achieve what they claim to achieve, namely, look into the future when assigning their ratings. We find that Moodey's ratings help predict individual financial ratios over a horizon of up to five years. Ratings also predict a...

This paper proposes a rating methodology that is based on a non-linear classification method, the support vector machine, and a non-parametric technique for mapping rating scores into probabilities of default. We give an introduction to underlying statistical models and represent the results of...

Financial constraints have been found to play an important role on various aspects of firmbehavior. Yet, their effects on firm survival have been largely neglected. We use a panel of9420 newly established UK firms over the period 1997-2002 to study the effects offinancial variables on firms´...

Predicting default probabilities is important for firms and banks to operate successfully and to estimate their specific risks. There are many reasons to use nonlinear techniques for predicting bankruptcy from financial ratios. Here we propose the so called Support Vector Machine (SVM) to...

The trade-off theory on capital structure is tested by modelling the capital structure target asthe solution to a maximization problem. This solution maps asset volatility and loss givendefault to optimal leverage. By applying nonlinear structural equation modelling, theseunobservable variables...

In this paper, we measure the impact of a downturn in the automobile industry on thesolvency of 28 large German banks. The choice of the stressed sector is motivated by theimportant role which the automobile industry plays in the German economy, not the leastbecause of its close ties to other...

This paper sets out to help explain why estimates of asset correlations based on equityprices tend to be considerably higher than estimates based on default rates. Resolving thisempirical puzzle is highly important because, rstly, asset correlations are a key driver ofcredit risk and, secondly,...