Die Frage nach der Kausalität fällt in die Methodologie. Methodologie ist in denWirtschaftswissenschaften ein Bereich, der sowohl bei Ökonomen als auch bei Philosophenkaum Beachtung findet. ....

Recent literature on the design of optimal monetary policy has shown that deviations fromprice stability are small whenever prices are sticky. This paper reconsiders this issue byintroducing capital accumulation in the model. Optimal monetary policy in this setupimplies small deviations from...

We extend the Carlstrom and Fuerst (American Economic Review,1997, 87, pp. 893–910) agency cost model of business cycles by includingtime-varying uncertainty in the technology shocks that affectcapital production. We first demonstrate that standard linearizationmethods can be used to solve the...

We construct a model for pricing sovereign debt that accounts for the risks of both default and restructuring, and allows for compensation for illiquidity. Using a new and relatively efficient method, we estimate the model using Russian dollar-denominated bonds.(...)

This paper investigates the impact of heterogeneous beliefs of professional investors on the currency options market. Using a unique data set with detailed information on the foreign-exchange forecasts of about 50 market participants over more than ten years, we construct an empirical proxy for...

In this paper we solve an intertemporal portfolio problem with correlation risk, using a new approach for the simultaneous modeling of stochastic correlation and volatility. The solutions of the model are in closed form and include an optimal portfolio demand for hedging correlation risk. We...

We introduce a Nelson-Siegel type interest rate term structure model with the underlying yield factors following autoregressive processes revealing time-varying stochastic volatility. The factor volatilities capture risk inherent to the term structure and are associated with the time-varying...

In this paper we investigate the stock market response to international monetary policychanges in the UK and Germany. Specifically, we analyse the impact of (un)expectedchanges in UK and German/Euro area policy rates on UK and German aggregate andsectoral equity returns in an event study. The...

Structural models for pricing risky debt imply a negative relationship betweeninterest rates and credit spreads. In contrast, credit default swap pricing modelsassume independence between credit risk and the term structure of interest rates.So far, empirical studies have focused on first...

This paper examines the question to what extent premia for macroeconomic risks inbanking are sufficient to avoid banking crises. We investigate a competitive bankingsystem embedded in an overlapping-generations model subject to repeatedmacroeconomic shocks. We show that even if banks fully...