This paper developes a new methodology to measure conditional dependency between time series each driven by complicated marginal distributions.

We evaluate how non-normality of asset returns and the temporal evolution of volatility and higher moments affects the conditional allocation of wealth. We show that if one neglects these aspects, as would be the case in a mean-variance allocation, a significant cost would arise. The performance...

In this paper, we extend the concept of News Impact Curve developed by Engle and Ng (1993) to the higher moments of the multivariate returns' distribution, thereby providing a tool to investigate the impact of shocks on the characteristics of the subsequent distribution. For this purpose, we...

It is well known that non-normality plays an important role in asset and risk management.However, handling a large number of assets has long been a challenge.In this paper, we present a statistical technique that extends Principal ComponentAnalysis to higher moments such as skewness and...

We implement a long-horizon static and dynamic portfolio allocation involvinga risk-free and a risky asset. This model is calibrated at a quarterly frequencyfor ten European countries. We also use maximum-likelihood estimates andBayesian estimates to account for parameter uncertainty. We nd that...

We investigate the consequences for value-at-risk and expected shortfall purposes of using a GARCH filter on various mis-specified processes. In general, we find that the McNeil and Frey (2000) two step procedure has very good forecasting properties. Using an unconditional non filtered tail...

The objective of this paper is to extend the results on Pseudo Maximum Likelihood(PML) theory derived in Gourieroux, Monfort, and Trognon (GMT)(1984) to a situation where the rst four conditional moments are specied.Such an extension is relevant in light of pervasive evidence that conditional...

This paper investigates the implications of cross-country heterogeneity within the euro area for the design of optimal monetary policy. We build an optimizing-based multi-country model (MCM) describing the euro area in which differences between structural parameters across countries are allowed....

In this paper, we investigate the asymmetry in the tail dependence between USequity portfolios and the aggregate US market. Given the limited number of ob-servations in the tails of a joint distribution, standard non-parametric measures oftail dependence often have poor nite-sample properties....

Our paper addresses the correction of the aggregation bias in linear rational expectations modelswhen there is some unobserved micro-parameter heterogeneity and only macro data are available.Starting from Lewbel (1994), we propose two new consistent estimators, which rely on aexible parametric...