This paper proposes a novel approach to the combination of conditional covariancematrix forecasts based on the use of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Itis shown how the procedure can be generalized to deal with large dimensional systemsby means of a two-step strategy. The finite sample...

In this paper we study the short term price behavior of December 2008 future prices for EU emissionallowances. We model returns and volatility dynamics of this price showing that a standard ARMA-GARCHframework is not adequate and that the gaussianity assumption is rejected due to the occurrence...

With the recent availability of high-frequency nancial data the longrange dependence of volatility regained researchers' interest and has leadto the consideration of long memory models for realized volatility. Thelong range diagnosis of volatility, however, is usually stated for long...

We propose a new multivariate GARCH model with Dynamic Conditional Correlations that extends previous models by admitting multivariate thresholds in conditional volatilitiesand correlations. The model estimation is feasible in large dimensions and the positive definiteness of the conditional...

We propose two alternative models to estimate fundamental prices on real estate markets. Both models state that the fundamental price is the sum of the discounted future period costs that arise from owning a house. The first model is based on a no-arbitrage condition between renting and buying a...

In this paper we develop a structural equation model with latent variables in an ordinal setting which allows us to test broker-dealer predictive ability of financial market movements. We use a multivariate logit model in a latent factor framework, develop a tractable estimator based on a...

We propose an empirical approach to determine the various economic sourcesdriving the US yield curve. We allow the conditional dynamics of the yield at differ-ent maturities to change in reaction to past information coming from several relevantpredictor variables. We consider both endogenous,...

This paper studies the effects of investors’ heterogeneous beliefs on the trading volume,price volatility, and liquidity of stocks. Following Kurz and Motolese (2008), wepropose a simple theoretical model to show that the equilibrium stock price is linearlyand positively correlated with market...

This paper employs an augmented version of the UECCC GARCH specificationproposed in Conrad and Karanasos (2010) which allows for lagged in-mean effects,level effects as well as asymmetries in the conditional variances. In this unifiedframework we examine the twelve potential intertemporal...

This paper employs the unrestricted extended constant conditional correlationGARCH specification proposed in Conrad and Karanasos (2008) to examine theintertemporal relationship between the uncertainties of in°ation and output growthin the US. We find that inflation uncertainty effects output...