This paper studies asset allocation decisions in the presence of regime switching in asset returns. Wefind evidence that four separate regimes - characterized as crash, slow growth, bull and recovery states- are required to capture the joint distribution of stock and bond returns. Optimal asset...

We implement a long-horizon static and dynamic portfolio allocation involvinga risk-free and a risky asset. This model is calibrated at a quarterly frequencyfor ten European countries. We also use maximum-likelihood estimates andBayesian estimates to account for parameter uncertainty. We nd that...

Estimation risk is known to have a huge impact on mean/variance (MV) optimized portfolios,which is one of the primary reasons to make standard Markowitz optimization unfeasible inpractice. Several approaches to incorporate estimation risk into portfolio selection are suggestedin the earlier...

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) has recently been discussed in the financial literature as an effective way to account for model uncertainty. In this paper we compare BMA to a new model uncertainty framework introduced by Yang (2004), called Aggregate Forecasting Through Exponential Reweighting,...

The current financial market crisis has impressively demonstrated the importance of aneffective credit risk management for financial institutions. At the same time, the use and thevaluation of credit derivatives has been widely criticised as a result of the crisis. Over the pastdecade, credit...

Seit dem Fall des Eisernen Vorhangs im Jahre 1989 befinden sich die zentral-, ost- und süd-osteuropäische Länder in einem Übergang von kommunistischen zu marktwirtschaftlich orientierten Volkswirtschaften. Eng damit verknüpft ist die Entstehung von Börsen für Aktien, die in den letzten...

The most relevant practical impediment to an application of the Markowitz portfolio selectionapproach is the problem of estimating return moments, in particular return expectations. We analyzethe consequences of using return estimates implied by analysts’ dividend forecasts under the...

In the literature, implied rates of return are suggested as estimators for future expected oneperiodreturns because of their property not being prone to the discount rate effect. The discount rateeffect describes the problem that changes in expected future one-period returns lead to...

Vorliegendes Arbeitspapier analysiert die Einflüsse intertemporaler Renditezusammenhänge und fester Startwerte in Vektorautoregressions-(VAR-) Modellen für stetige Renditen anhand des Vergleichs mit einem statischen Random-Walk-Modell.

This paper argues that book-to-market and size attributes represent sensitivities of firm returns to several risk factors, and in so doing they subsume the information in other attributes.