In this study we develop and demonstrate a powerful and flexible forward-looking portfoliosimulation methodology for assessing the correlated impacts of market risk, and privatesector, sovereign and inter-bank default risk on both individual banks (i.e. 28 of the largestBrazilian banks) and...

We study the risk of holding credit default swaps (CDS) in the trading book. In particular, wecompare the Value at Risk (VaR) of a CDS position to the VaR for investing in the respectivefirm’s equity. Our sample consists of CDS – stock price pairs for 86 actively traded firms overthe period...

This paper examines the potential distortion of prices in the CDS marketcaused by too-big-to-fail. Overall, we find evidence for market discipline inthe CDS market. However, CDS prices are distorted due to a size effect whicharises when investors expect a public bail-out as a result of...

In this paper, we measure the impact of a downturn in the automobile industry on thesolvency of 28 large German banks. The choice of the stressed sector is motivated by theimportant role which the automobile industry plays in the German economy, not the leastbecause of its close ties to other...

In this paper we investigate the interaction between a credit portfolio and another risktype, which can be thought of as market risk. Combining Merton-like factor models forcredit risk with linear factor models for market risk, we analytically calculate their interriskcorrelation and show how...

We analyze collateralized loan obligation (CLO) transactions by European banks(1997 - 2004), trying to identify firm-specific and macroeconomic factors influencing aninstitution’s securitization decision. CLO issuance seems to be an appropriate fundingtool for large banks with high risk and...

In order to analyze the pricing of portfolio credit risk – as revealed by tranche spreadsof a popular credit default swap (CDS) index – we extract risk-neutral probabilities ofdefault (PDs) and physical asset return correlations from single-name CDS spreads. Thetime profile and overall level...

This is study empirically examine the impact of market conditions on credit spreads asmotivated by recently developed structural credit risk models. Using credit default swap(CDS) spreads, we find that, in the time series, average credit spreads are decreasing inGDP growth rate, but increasing...

By using short-term direct finance firms of the highest credit quality exposethemselves to rollover risk in the public debt markets. Firms insure themselvesagainst this risk by securing backup lines of credit from banks that they mayuse should market liquidity dry up. In a first step, this paper...

This paper sets out to help explain why estimates of asset correlations based on equityprices tend to be considerably higher than estimates based on default rates. Resolving thisempirical puzzle is highly important because, rstly, asset correlations are a key driver ofcredit risk and, secondly,...