Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchangerates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despitethis limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecastingpower and thus help policy-makers to prevent...

Explaining exchange rates has long been an important but vexing issue in international economics and finance. In recent years, a number of studies have shown that investors' private information plays a central role in determining exchange rates. We demonstrate in this paper that the private...

Recent research has shown that relaxing the assumptions of complete informationand common knowledge in exchange rate models can shed light on a wide range ofimportant exchange rate puzzles. In this chapter, we review a number of models wehave developed in previous work that relax the strong...

We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U.S., building on the Lee-Carter approach and extendingit in several dimensions. We incorporate covariates and model their dynamics jointly with the latent variables underlying...

Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of manyinstitutions. However, to the best of our knowledge their performance has notbeen investigated yet. In this work, we study the Bank of England’s risk forecastsfor inflation. We find that these forecasts do not...

In this papaer, we put DSGE forecasts in competition with factor forecasts. We focus on these two models since they represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic background; the factor model on the other hand is mainly...

This paper demonstrates effects of economic convergence processes on the foreign exchange behaviour in a monetary modelling approach. Since the exchange rate represents the relative price of two currencies, commonness of stochastic trends between the fundamental determinants of supply and demand...

This paper presents a behavioral finance model of the exchange rate. Agents forecast theexchange rate by means of very simple rules. They can choose between three groups offorecasting rules: fundamentalist, extrapolative and momentum rules. Agents using afundamentalist rule are not able to...

Past empirical research on monetary policy in open economies has found evidence of the ’delayed overshooting’, the ’forward discount’ and the ’exchange rate’ puzzles. We revisit the effects of monetary policy on exchange rates by applying Uhlig’s (2005) identification procedure that...