We study the risk of holding credit default swaps (CDS) in the trading book. In particular, wecompare the Value at Risk (VaR) of a CDS position to the VaR for investing in the respectivefirm’s equity. Our sample consists of CDS – stock price pairs for 86 actively traded firms overthe period...

This paper examines the potential distortion of prices in the CDS marketcaused by too-big-to-fail. Overall, we find evidence for market discipline inthe CDS market. However, CDS prices are distorted due to a size effect whicharises when investors expect a public bail-out as a result of...

This is study empirically examine the impact of market conditions on credit spreads asmotivated by recently developed structural credit risk models. Using credit default swap(CDS) spreads, we find that, in the time series, average credit spreads are decreasing inGDP growth rate, but increasing...

This paper investigates the market pricing of subprime mortgage risk on the basis of data forthe ABX.HE family of indices, which have become a key barometer of mortgage marketconditions during the recent financial crisis. After an introduction into ABX index mechanicsand a discussion of...

A parimutuel market microstructure for contingent claims trading is proposed and analyzed. A parimutuel microstructure is a call auction where relative equilibrium prices of contingent claims are endogenously determined using a specific mechanism. We propose a market microstructure incorporating...

This paper develops a default-risky bond pricing model, which assumes that the default intensity is driven by a Markov chain and which accounts for default and liquidity risk. A representation of the bond price dynamics, which separates three different types of risk, was obtained. Introducing...

The payoff of many credit derivatives depends on the level of credit spreads. Inparticular, credit derivatives with a leverage component are subject to gap risk, a riskassociated with the occurrence of jumps in the underlying credit default swaps. Inthe framework of first passage time models, we...

We investigate the problem of modeling defaults of dependent credits.In the framework of the class of structural default models we studythreshold models where for each credit the underling ability-to-payprocess is a transformation of a Wiener processes. We propose a modelfor dependent defaults...

In this paper we propose a framework for measuring and stress testing the systemic risk of a group of major financial institutions. The systemic risk is measured by the price of insurance against financial distress, which is based on ex ante measures of default probabilities of individual banks...