In this papaer, we put DSGE forecasts in competition with factor forecasts. We focus on these two models since they represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic background; the factor model on the other hand is mainly...

Any serious empirical study of factor substitutability has to allow the data to display complementarity as well as substitutability. The standard approach reflecting this idea is a translog specification – this is also the approach used by numerous studies analyzing the relative capital-skill...

We consider an artificial population of forward looking heterogeneous agents making decisions between schooling, employment, employment with training and household production, according to a behavioral model calibrated to a large set of stylized facts. Some of these agents are subject to policy...

We use a unique dataset of bond downgrades from a niche rating company that has been found to be reacting faster to publicly available information than its competitors. Using regime-switching models we propose risk measures to quantify stock return disturbances (distress costs) associated with...

The rapidly growing literature on the relationship between energy consumption and economicgrowth has not univocally identi…ed the ‘real’causal relationship yet. We argue that bivariate mod-els, which analyze the causality at the level of the total economy, are not appropriate — especiallyin...

Cross-country capital flows have increased greatly, since the liberalization of internationalcapital markets two decades ago. Equity home bias, while less severe than earlier, remains sizeableand is observed in all industrialized countries. There are broadly two classes of explanations for...

A striking and unexpected feature of the financial crisis has been the sharpappreciation of the US dollar against virtually all currencies globally. The paper findsthat negative US-specific macroeconomic shocks during the crisis have triggered asignificant strengthening of the US dollar, rather...

We study the value of information in financial markets by asking whether having more information always leads to higher returns. We address this question in an experiment where single traders have different information levels about an asset’s intrinsic value. In our treatments we vary the...

For the Euro 2000 Soccer Championships an experimental asset market was conducted, with traders buying and selling contracts on the winners of individual matches. Market-generated probabilites are compared to professional bet quotas, and factors that are responsible for the quality of the market...

We study the impact of ambiguity on two alternative institutions of nancial intermediationin an economy where consumers face uncertain liquidity needs. The ambiguitythe consumers experience is modeled by the degree of condence in their additive beliefs. Weanalyze the optimal liquidity allocation...