Die Frage nach der Kausalität fällt in die Methodologie. Methodologie ist in denWirtschaftswissenschaften ein Bereich, der sowohl bei Ökonomen als auch bei Philosophenkaum Beachtung findet. ....

Recent literature on the design of optimal monetary policy has shown that deviations fromprice stability are small whenever prices are sticky. This paper reconsiders this issue byintroducing capital accumulation in the model. Optimal monetary policy in this setupimplies small deviations from...

We extend the Carlstrom and Fuerst (American Economic Review,1997, 87, pp. 893–910) agency cost model of business cycles by includingtime-varying uncertainty in the technology shocks that affectcapital production. We first demonstrate that standard linearizationmethods can be used to solve the...

In this paper we investigate the stock market response to international monetary policychanges in the UK and Germany. Specifically, we analyse the impact of (un)expectedchanges in UK and German/Euro area policy rates on UK and German aggregate andsectoral equity returns in an event study. The...

The paper evaluates the performance of three popular monetary policy rules when the central bank is learning aboutthe parameter values of a simple New Keynesian model. The three policies are: (1) the optimal non-inertial rule; (2)the optimal history-dependent rule; (3) the optimal price-level...

A striking fact about pricing is the prevalence of \sales": large temporary price cuts followedby prices returning exactly to their former levels. This paper builds a macroeconomic modelwith a rationale for sales based on firms facing customers with different price sensitivities.Even if firms...

In a country with high probability of default, higher interest rates may render the currency lessattractive if sovereign default is costly. This paper develops that intuition in a simple model andestimates the effect of changes in interest rates on the exchange rate in Brazil using data from...

This paper computes welfare-maximizing monetary and tax policy feedback rules in acalibrated dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices. The government makesexogenous final good purchases, levies a proportional income tax, and issues nominalone-period bonds. A quadratic approximation...

We construct a model for pricing sovereign debt that accounts for the risks of both default and restructuring, and allows for compensation for illiquidity. Using a new and relatively efficient method, we estimate the model using Russian dollar-denominated bonds.(...)

This paper investigates the impact of heterogeneous beliefs of professional investors on the currency options market. Using a unique data set with detailed information on the foreign-exchange forecasts of about 50 market participants over more than ten years, we construct an empirical proxy for...