We implement a long-horizon static and dynamic portfolio allocation involvinga risk-free and a risky asset. This model is calibrated at a quarterly frequencyfor ten European countries. We also use maximum-likelihood estimates andBayesian estimates to account for parameter uncertainty. We nd that...

We propose an empirical approach to determine the various economic sourcesdriving the US yield curve. We allow the conditional dynamics of the yield at differ-ent maturities to change in reaction to past information coming from several relevantpredictor variables. We consider both endogenous,...

We evaluate how non-normality of asset returns and the temporal evolution of volatility and higher moments affects the conditional allocation of wealth. We show that if one neglects these aspects, as would be the case in a mean-variance allocation, a significant cost would arise. The performance...

The recently proposed class of MixN-GARCH models, which couple a mixed normal distributional structure with linked GARCH-type dynamics, has been shown to offer a plausible decomposition of the contributions to volatility, as well as admirable out-of-sample forecasting performance, for financial...

Economic cycles are the key credit portfolio risk driver and they are autocorrelated over time. We then show that it is economically meaningful to define risk for credit portfolios in a multi period setup. Since one period expected shortfall fails to measure risk adequately in a multi period...

Most time series models used in econometrics and empirical finance are estimated withmaximum likelihood methods, in particular when interest centers on density and Value{at{Risk (VaR) prediction. The standard maximum likelihood principle implicitly placesequal weight on each of the observations...

The wavelet transform is used to identify a biannual and an annual seasonalityin the Phelix Day Peak and to separate the long-term trend from its short-termmotion. The short-term/long-term model for commodity prices of Schwartz &Smith (2000) is applied but generalised to account for weekly...

In this paper we study the short term price behavior of December 2008 future prices for EU emissionallowances. We model returns and volatility dynamics of this price showing that a standard ARMA-GARCHframework is not adequate and that the gaussianity assumption is rejected due to the occurrence...

This paper employs an augmented version of the UECCC GARCH specificationproposed in Conrad and Karanasos (2010) which allows for lagged in-mean effects,level effects as well as asymmetries in the conditional variances. In this unifiedframework we examine the twelve potential intertemporal...