Showing 1 - 10 of 232
In this papaer, we put DSGE forecasts in competition with factor forecasts. We focus on these two models since they represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic background; the factor model on the other hand is mainly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866191
Achieving a good response rate is a goal in every survey. Response rate has also become an interesting academic debate. On one side Hunt (1990) maintains that since marketing is a social science, where most of the time researchers are interested in examining relationships rather than determining...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005869968
The long memory characteristic of financial market volatility is well documentedand has important implications for volatility forecasting and optionpricing. When fitted to the same data, different volatility models calculate theunconditional variance differently and could have very different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005870000
This paper studies asset allocation decisions in the presence of regime switching in asset returns. Wefind evidence that four separate regimes - characterized as crash, slow growth, bull and recovery states- are required to capture the joint distribution of stock and bond returns. Optimal asset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005870161
I examine determinants of stochastic relative risk aversion in conditional asset pricing models. I first develop time … determinant of relative risk aversion. Second, the CAY of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001a) without a look-ahead bias explains part of … relative risk aversion, and the short term interest rate has some explanatory power for hedging components.... …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005870706
The recent financial crisis has accentuated the fact that extreme outcomes have been overlookedand not dealt with adequately. While extreme value theories have existed for a long time, themultivariate variant is difficult to handle in the financial markets due to the prevalentheteroskedasticity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005870713
The estimation of multivariate GARCH models remains a challenging task, even in modern computer environments. This … of the time otherwise required. The proposed method is a two-step procedure, separating the estimation of the correlation … computationally cheap and extremely accurate — most notably in the tail, which is crucial for risk calculations. A simulation study …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005857739
exceedances more than distant ones, but it also allows theintensity to depend on the marks of the events. Estimates of Value-at-Risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005858382
Controllability of longer-term interest rates requires that the persis-tence of their deviations from the central bank's policy rate (i.e. thepolicy spreads) remains suffciently low. This paper applies fractionalintegration techniques to assess the persistence of policy spreads ofeuro area money...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005865428
This paper proposes a novel approach to the combination of conditional covariancematrix forecasts based on the use of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Itis shown how the procedure can be generalized to deal with large dimensional systemsby means of a two-step strategy. The finite sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005865451