The techniques of probabilistic population forecasting are increasingly being recognised as a profitable means of overcoming many of the limitations of conventional deterministic variant population forecasts. This paper applies these techniques to present the first comprehensive set of...

The variability of demographic trends at the subnational scale, particularly internal and international migration, renders subnational population forecasting more difficult than at the national scale. Illustrating the uncertainty of the demographic future for subnational regions is therefore a...

This paper reports on the application of a probabilistic forecasting framework to Statistics New Zealand’s 2004-based national population projections. The assumptions of the Series 5 projections (the middle series)were set as the medians of the fertility, mortality and net migration predictive...

Thesis (PhD)--University of South Australia, 2009