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Shadow Open Market Committee,

Economic recovery may be underway. Inflation continues to fall, but the speed and durability of the recovery remain in doubt. Some foresee the economy reverting to stagnation or recession in 1983 after a brief period of expansion. Others foresee sustained recovery with growth of real output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009483082

Chicken Little and the Monetary Aggregates

Johannes, James M.; Rasche, Robert H.

During recent months the behavior of the various monetary aggregates in the United States has been the subject of almost continuous commentary. The most frequent conclusion is that the observed behavior has been dominated by a number ofunique events. First it was alleged that the behavior of M1...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009483083

Monetary Policy and the Outlook for 1983

Jordan, Jerry L.

Adopting a restrictive policy to reduce inflation and being willing to stick with it even in a long and deep recession is not evidence that it will be successful. The test of whether a long-run anti-inflation policy will be maintained does not occur until the subsequent expansion gets underway....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009483084

Trade Policy and Current Economic Problems

Tumlir, Jan

Two issues have dominated economic policy discussions in recent months. The first is that of cyclical recovery in the main industrial countries, which many observers expected to be weak and/or threatened by a possible resurgence of inflation. Several indicators suggest that a spontaneous upturn...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009483085

The monetary framework after accession ?? a political economy analysis of ERM2

ECSA-Austria: European Integration online Papers

The paper discusses the framework of ERM2 (the exchange rate mechanism of EMU, the Economic and Monetary Union) and its suitability for accession countries / advanced transition economies. It analyzes the exchange rate mechanism from two aspects. First, it considers how ERM2 regulates the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009483197

Urban growth centres on the periphery : Ad hoc policy vision and research neglect

Jain, Ameeta; Courvisanos, Jerry - 2009

The focus of this paper is peripheral urban growth centres on the edges of capital cities in Australia and the challenges they face as dormitory suburbs attempting to establish their own local business development. These challenges create dilemmas as infrastructure and climate change place...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009484588

Disentangling Investment Returns and Stock Returns: The Importance of Time-to-Build

Kuehn, Lars-Alexander - 2009

I provide new evidence on the failure of the Q-theory. The Q-theory implies the state-by-state equivalence of stock and … the Q-theory. This paper also proposes a rational explanation for this finding. A general equilibrium model with … interpreted as evidence for irrational markets since it cannot be reconciled with the Q-theory of investment. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009440954

Consumption Volatility Risk

Boguth, Oliver; Kuehn, Lars-Alexander - 2009

Empirically, the conditional volatility of aggregate consumption growth varies over time. While many papers test the consumption CAPM based on realized consumption growth, little is known about how the time-variation of consumption growth volatility affects asset prices. We show that in a model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009440955

Management Compensation and Earnings-Based Covenants in Resolving Adverse Selection in Credit Markets

Levine, Carolyn B.; Hughes, John S. - 2003

A firm seeks to raise capital in credit markets to fund risky operating activities. The firm has private information about the future cash flows from such activities. Firm owners delegate operating decisions to a manager who privately learns further information about the distribution of those...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009440956

Earnings Dispersion and Aggregate Stock Returns

Jorgensen, Bjorn N.; Li, Jing; Sadka, Gil - 2009

While aggregate earnings should affect aggregate stock returns, standard portfolio theory predicts that the cross …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009440958