Classical approaches to estimating the rate of occurrence of events perform poorly when data are few. Maximum likelihood estimators result in overly optimistic point estimates of zero for situations where there have been no events. Alternative empirical-based approaches have been proposed based...

Empirical Bayes provides one approach to estimating the frequency of rare events as a weighted average of the frequencies of an event and a pool of events. The pool will draw upon, for example, events with similar precursors. The higher the degree of homogeneity of the pool, then the Empirical...

This report examines a number of exploration campaigns that have taken place during the last 700 years, and considers them from a risk perspective. The explorations are those led by Christopher Columbus, Sir Walter Raleigh, John Franklin, Sir Ernest Shackleton, the Company of Scotland to Darien...